Election 2024: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Polls and Odds

The 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign is one of the closest races in recent history. Initially, polls showed former President Donald Trump holding a consistent lead over incumbent President Joe Biden, with margins typically ranging from 2-4 percentage points. However, the political landscape underwent a seismic shift when Biden withdrew from the race after a disastrous debate performance against Trump in June.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s emergence as the Democratic nominee has altered the dynamics of the contest. Recent polls indicate that Harris has closed the gap with Trump, and the race is too close to call. While Trump had maintained a lead over Biden in most surveys, the latest polls often show Harris and Trump separated by within the margin of error.
The closeness of the race is evident in key battleground states, where Harris and Trump are separated by less than a percentage point in several instances. This neck-and-neck contest has energized both parties’ bases and intensified the focus on undecided voters, who could prove key to securing Electoral College success in battleground states.
In the days following Tuesday’s fiery presidential debate, Vice President Kamala Harris maintains her narrow polling lead over former President Donald Trump.
As of early morning September 13, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight put Harris 2.8-points ahead in the national polls.
The Democratic Vice President had 47 percent support, while her Republican rival had 44.4 percent.
The most recent update to Nate Silver’s election poll averages on the Silver Bulletin blog saw Harris at 48.7 percent, and Trump at 46.8 percent.
Meanwhile, aggregator RealClearPolling also had Harris ahead of Trump, with 48.5 percent support, while the Republican had 47 percent support.
This time last year, RealClearPolling found Trump to be leading nationally, though only by a hair—Trump was 0.4 points ahead of then-candidate President Joe Biden, with 44.8 percent support.
This September is shaping up to be a much closer month than it was during last election cycle. The Democratic Party led by a more comfortable 7.3 points in 2020.
Polling averages snapshots rather than forecasts. While they may indicate current voter sentiment toward the candidates, the race for the White House is far from over.
National polls measure the popular vote. A presidential contender can win this yet still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes, a number based on each state’s delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives.
Some, but not all, aggregators will weigh the impact individual polls have on their averages based on how they perceive pollsters’ methodologies and biases.
It should also be noted that polls have a margin of error, often of at least few percentage points. Considering the current closeness of the scores, polls suggest a tight race between Harris and Trump that could swing either way.
Since 38 of the 50 states have voted for the same political party from 2000 to 2016, the winner is almost always decided by a handful of “swing states,” also known as “purple” or “battleground” states.
This year’s election is likely to hinge on seven—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Arizona Polls
An American Greatness/TIPP poll had Harris and Trump tied in Arizona. However, both a CNN poll and an Insider Advantage poll found Trump to be ahead in the state—by five points and one point respectively.
Georgia Polls
The candidates were tied in Georgia according to an Insider advantage poll—with both at 48 percent. A Quinnipiac poll put Trump ahead with 49 percent to Harris’ 45, while an Emerson College found Harris to be in the lead, one point ahead of Trump, on 49 percent.
Michigan Polls
Recent Michigan polls suggest a tight race in this swing state. The Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group found Harris and Trump tied on 47 percent. A CBS poll had Harris at 50 percent—one point ahead of Trump, while Insider Advantage put Trump (49 percent) ahead of Harris (48 percent).
Pennsylvania Polls
Three recent polls suggest a deadlock in Pennsylvania. Emerson College, CNN, and CBS News polls all had the candidates tied.
Wisconsin Polls
In Wisconsin, a poll by Marquette Law School found Harris had 52 percent, while Trump had 48 percent. CBS news also had Harris ahead, with 51 percent compared to Trump’s 49. The Trafalgar Group put Trump in the lead however, with 47 percent to Harris’ 46.
What About Florida?
While not considered a swing state this year by pundits, polls have given Harris some hope in Trump’s home state, and Florida has swung between the parties in past election cycles.
However, Republicans are currently considered to have a firm hold on the Sunshine State.
The most recent aggregation of betting odds are slightly in favor of Harris.
According to RealClearPolitics, bookmakers currently give her a 51.1 percent chance of winning, and Trump a 47.4 percent chance.
Compared to standard election polls, which usually take place over multiple days, gambling odds are highly reactive to news events, and thus update more quickly.
Betting on politics is illegal in the U.S., and Newsweek does not encourage or condone it.
Keep up to date with each candidate’s strategies with Newsweek’s Trump campaign tracker and Newsweek’s Harris campaign tracker.
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